This Canadian study, conducted by economists Brad Davis, Abigail Friedman, and Michael Pesko, examines the impact of provincial flavour restrictions between 2018 and 2023. Using a combination of retail vaping sales data, wholesale cigarette shipment data, and Google search trends, the researchers compared outcomes across provinces with and without such policies.
Findings indicate that while flavoured vaping product sales declined significantly following the introduction of restrictions, cigarette sales increased by approximately 9.6% in affected provinces, with some estimates exceeding 20%. These results highlight the importance of considering broader behavioural and public health impacts when evaluating flavour restriction policies.
Restrictions on flavoured vaping products have been increasingly associated with unintended shifts in consumer behaviour, including rising cigarette sales. Drawing on a growing body of economic and public health research, evidence suggests that when flavoured vaping products are removed from the market, consumers may substitute combustible cigarettes, rather than discontinue nicotine use altogether.
Davis, B., Friedman, A., & Pesko, M. (2024). Restricting sales of flavored nicotine vaping products: Effects on nicotine vaping product and cigarette sales in Canada.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ckM7YBI5CQ2H1k9b8zPD6PbOsjU9FWsx/view?pli=1